notes from liguria, italy

The Illusion of Control

By Margherita Patrone - Sept 19, 2026 - 4 min read - Issue #12

We need someone to help with some renovation work at home.That should be relatively simple.Find someone reliable.Explain what needs doing.Ask for a quote.Decide.But the process quickly became:Let me contact four different people so that we have enough options.Then:We should probably receive several quotes so that we can compare them properly.And finally:Perhaps I should prepare a brief and ask each of them to submit a proposal.At that point, I realised I was dangerously close to running a formal procurement process for some work at home.Oh no.My instinct, whenever I encounter a problem, is to find a solution.Preferably a very good one.Preferably with several alternatives.Preferably supported by enough information to ensure that nothing can go wrong.This instinct is incredibly useful.But it also made me think about a behavioural bias that affects many of our everyday decisions:The illusion of control.How much can we really control?The illusion of control is our tendency to overestimate how much influence we have over an outcome.The concept was introduced by psychologist Ellen Langer in the 1970s.In one of her experiments, people participated in a lottery.Some were allowed to choose their own ticket.Others were simply given one.Choosing the ticket did nothing to change the probability of winning.The outcome was still entirely random.But the participants who selected their own tickets behaved as though those tickets were more valuable. They were more reluctant to exchange them than those who had received one at random.The simple act of choosing created a feeling of control.Of course, most of our decisions are not lotteries.Choosing the right person for renovation work is not random.Researching, comparing quotes and asking good questions can meaningfully improve the result.Planning matters.Preparation matters.The difficulty is recognising the point at which more preparation stops significantly improving the outcome and starts mainly improving how we feel about it.The comfort of having a planUncertainty is uncomfortable.We do not know whether the person we hire will be reliable.We do not know whether the work will be completed on time.We do not know whether the final cost will match the original quote.We do not know whether we have made the best choice.So we act.We research.We compare.We ask more questions.We create backup plans.Every action produces a little more certainty, or at least the feeling of it.There is now a list.A process.A Plan B.Something that originally felt uncertain begins to look manageable.This can be extremely helpful.But activity and control are not the same thing.Sometimes an action changes the likely outcome.Sometimes it simply changes our emotional experience of the outcome.It makes us feel less exposed.More prepared.Safer.And because that feeling is reassuring, we can continue planning long after the most useful work has already been done.Preparation cannot remove uncertaintyPlanning is one of the ways we shape our lives.We prepare for the interview.We compare our options.We ask for advice.We think ahead.We reduce avoidable problems.The lesson of the illusion of control is not that we should stop planning and hope everything works out.It is that preparation can improve the probability of a good outcome without guaranteeing one.You can carefully select the person with the best experience and references.They can still become ill.A hidden problem can still appear during the work.Materials can arrive late.Another project can overrun.The more effort we invest in preparing, the easier it becomes to believe that the result should now follow the plan.And when it does not, we feel particularly frustrated.We did everything right.Why did this still happen?Because preparation influences uncertainty.It does not eliminate it.More choice does not always mean more controlModern life gives us an extraordinary number of choices.We can compare dozens of hotels before booking a room.Read hundreds of reviews before buying something small.Analyse every possible route before beginning a journey.Research every symptom before speaking to a doctor.Find ten possible suppliers before selecting one.Choice can be empowering.But it can also create the impression that if we examine enough options, there must be one perfect decision that will protect us from disappointment.Often there is not.There may be several good options.Each with different advantages.Each with some uncertainty.At a certain point, gathering more information does not produce clarity.It simply produces more information.The decision still has to be made by someone who cannot know exactly how things will turn out.Is the plan improving the outcome?One question can help us distinguish useful preparation from the illusion of control:Is this plan improving the likely outcome, or is it helping me manage the discomfort of not knowing?Sometimes the answer is both.Speaking to several people may help us understand a reasonable price.Requesting a written quote can prevent misunderstandings.Checking references can reveal important information.These actions reduce real risk.But perhaps the fifth quote will not teach us very much that the first four did not.Perhaps another hour of research will not materially change the decision.Perhaps the third backup plan is protecting us from an outcome that is extremely unlikely to happen.The objective is not to stop preparing.It is to notice the point at which additional preparation offers emotional reassurance without adding much practical value.The cost of controlling everythingEvery attempt to create more certainty requires something from us.Time.Attention.Energy.Sometimes money.There can also be a relational cost.When one person always anticipates, organises and solves, other people may gradually begin to rely on them to do it.Not necessarily because they are unwilling to help.Sometimes there is simply no space left for them to step in.The solution has already been found.The appointment has already been arranged.The alternatives have already been researched.The problem has already become somebody else’s project.Control can make us feel responsible.But feeling responsible for everything can eventually make everything feel heavy.Control, influence and uncertaintyIt can help to divide a situation into three parts.What you can controlYour preparation.The questions you ask.The boundaries you set.The information you gather.The decision you make.What you can influenceHow clearly other people understand your expectations.How likely they are to deliver what you need.How quickly a problem is identified.How easily the plan can be adjusted.What you cannot controlAnother person’s behaviour.Unexpected events.Every hidden complication.The precise outcome.The future.Many of us spend enormous energy trying to move things from the third category into the first.If I research enough, prepare enough and think far enough ahead, perhaps I can turn the uncertain into the certain.But some things cannot be moved.The more useful response is not to stop caring.It is to place our effort where it can make a difference.Knowing when you have done enoughThe illusion of control becomes particularly powerful when there is no clear point at which preparation ends.There is always another option to investigate.Another opinion to request.Another possible problem to anticipate.So before beginning, decide what “enough” will look like.For example:I will request three quotes.I will check two references.I will spend one hour researching this decision.If an option meets these four criteria, I will choose it.This creates a stopping point before anxiety and additional information take over.Without one, we may stop only when we feel completely certain.And with many decisions, complete certainty never arrives.Space is also a strategyCreating space does not have to mean doing nothing.Space gives new information time to emerge.It gives other people an opportunity to contribute.It allows us to see whether a problem really needs intervention.It prevents us from investing enormous energy in solving something that may resolve itself.And it reminds us that responding immediately is not the only form of competence.Sometimes competence looks like action.Sometimes it looks like restraint.Sometimes it means preparing carefully.Sometimes it means recognising that we have already done enough.The experimentThis week, choose one situation you are currently trying to control.A decision.A project.A conversation.Something happening at work or at home.Divide a page into three sections:ControlInfluenceCannot controlWrite every part of the situation under one of those headings.Then look at the final section.Notice how much time or energy you have been spending there.The objective is not to become passive.It is to move your attention back towards the places where your actions have real value.Make the call.Ask the question.Prepare the brief.Gather the information you genuinely need.And then allow the outcome to contain some uncertainty.Because the goal of planning is not to guarantee that nothing unexpected will happen.It is to prepare ourselves well enough to respond when it does.Perhaps we do not need complete control to feel safe.Perhaps we need to trust that even if the plan changes, we will know what to do next.Where in your life might more planning be giving you the feeling of control without meaningfully changing the outcome?A Saturday morning note, written in Liguria, where even a little renovation work can apparently become a formal procurement exercise.Until next Saturday,Margherita